The UK’s cybersecurity chief, Richard Horne, has cautioned that the nation is underestimating the scale of online threats posed by hostile states and criminal groups. In his inaugural address as head of GCHQ’s National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC), Horne reported a threefold increase in “severe” cyber incidents, citing Russia’s “aggression and recklessness” alongside China’s “sophisticated” digital operations.

Between September 2023 and August 2024, the NCSC handled 430 cyber incidents, up from 371 the previous year, with 12 classified as “severe”—triple the number from the prior period. Notable targets included the British Library and Synnovis, the company managing NHS blood tests.

The NCSC has raised concerns about the growing disparity between evolving cyber threats and current defences, urging enhanced protection for critical infrastructure, supply chains, and the public sector.

In his first major address since taking charge of the NCSC, which operates under GCHQ, Horne is set to emphasize a shift in how the agency communicates the growing dangers of cyber threats.

While cyberattacks have been increasing annually for over five years, the NCSC has, until now, refrained from explicitly confirming or expressing alarm over this trend. However, Horne plans to highlight a stark reality.

“What has struck me most since taking the helm at the NCSC is the clearly widening gap between the exposure and threat we face and the defences that are in place to protect us” he commented.

Drawing on intelligence available to the NCSC as part of GCHQ, Richard Horne warned that “hostile activity in UK cyberspace has increased in frequency, sophistication, and intensity.” Despite escalating threats from Russian and Chinese actors, Horne will stress that British society at large is not fully recognizing the gravity of these risks.

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